· Analysis updated 14:19 UTC
Bansko vs Slivnishki geroy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for Bansko and 1.60 for Slivnishki geroy, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Bansko the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Bansko win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bansko home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Slivnishki geroy away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bansko to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 21% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for Bansko and 1.60 for Slivnishki geroy, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–26.6%
- 3–16.1%
Recent form
Bansko
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyustendil · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Simitli · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Strumska Slava · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oborishte · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Belasitsa · 4-1 (W)
Slivnishki geroy
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Balkan Botevgrad · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kostinbrod · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Belasitsa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Sofia II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Minyor Pernik | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 29 |
| 2 | Oborishte | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Bansko | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 4 | Strumska Slava | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Septemvri Sofia II | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Balkan Botevgrad | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 7 | Kostinbrod | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 18 |
| 8 | Slivnishki geroy | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | CSKA Sofia III | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Botev Ihtiman | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Septemvri Simitli | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | Chavdar Etropole | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 13 |
| 14 | Levski Sofia II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 | Belasitsa | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 11 |
| 16 | Kyustendil | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Natsional Sofia | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Pirin Razlog | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bansko win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.