Campo de Lasesarre · Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Barakaldo vs Mérida AD Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Barakaldo and 0.90 for Mérida AD, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Barakaldo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Barakaldo win
50.6% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barakaldo home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mérida AD away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barakaldo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 26% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Barakaldo and 0.90 for Mérida AD, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–010.1%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–19.1%
Recent form
Barakaldo
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Arenas Getxo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Avilés · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Ferrol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Extremadura 1924 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:45:00.000Z · A vs CD Coria · 1-4 (L)
Mérida AD
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Arenas Getxo · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Pontevedra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Cacereño · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:15:00.000Z · H vs UD Logroñés · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Ponferradina · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Mérida AD | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Athletic Club II | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Zamora | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Cultural Leonesa | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Cacereño | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Ponferradina | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Real Avilés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 11 | Pontevedra | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Mirandes | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Real Unión | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 14 | Extremadura 1924 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 17 | CD Coria | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -17 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Barakaldo win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.