Campo de Lasesarre · Analysis updated 13:32 UTC
Barakaldo vs Pontevedra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Barakaldo and 1.26 for Pontevedra, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Pontevedra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barakaldo home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pontevedra away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pontevedra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 36% / 27% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Barakaldo and 1.26 for Pontevedra, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–08.3%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Barakaldo
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Arenas Getxo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Avilés · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Ferrol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Extremadura 1924 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:45:00.000Z · A vs CD Coria · 1-4 (L)
Pontevedra
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Mérida AD · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Ferrol · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Ponferradina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs UD Logroñés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club II · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Athletic Club II | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Cacereño | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Mirandes | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Zamora | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Cultural Leonesa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Ponferradina | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Real Unión | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Extremadura 1924 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Mérida AD | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Real Avilés | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 14 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Pontevedra | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Barakaldo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | CD Coria | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.