Campo de Lasesarre · Analysis updated 14:55 UTC
Barakaldo vs Real Unión Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Barakaldo and 1.58 for Real Unión, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Real Unión the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.4% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barakaldo home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Unión away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Unión to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 32% / 25% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Barakaldo and 1.58 for Real Unión, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–17.5%
- 1–07.3%
Recent form
Barakaldo
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Arenas Getxo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Avilés · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing Ferrol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Extremadura 1924 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:45:00.000Z · A vs CD Coria · 1-4 (L)
Real Unión
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs UD Ourense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruña II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Mirandes · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Ferrol · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Unionistas de Salamanca · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Athletic Club II | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Cacereño | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Mirandes | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Zamora | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Cultural Leonesa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Ponferradina | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Real Unión | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Extremadura 1924 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Mérida AD | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Real Avilés | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 14 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Pontevedra | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Barakaldo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | CD Coria | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.