Baranovichi vs Naftan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Baranovichi and 1.12 for Naftan, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Baranovichi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Baranovichi win

59.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.08 – 1.12

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Baranovichi home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Naftan away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Baranovichi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 21% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Baranovichi and 1.12 for Naftan, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Baranovichi win59%

Draw21%

Naftan win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

2–19.9%
1–19.5%
2–08.8%
1–08.5%
3–16.8%

Recent form

Baranovichi

2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Minsk · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Brest · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs ML Vitebsk · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-09T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Bate Borisov · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-01T13:10:00.000Z · H vs FC Isloch Minsk R. · 3-4 (L)

Naftan

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Isloch Minsk R. · 0-6 (L)
2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Torpedo Zhodino · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Belshina · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Mozyr · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bate Borisov · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ML Vitebsk	25	16	8	1	34	56
2	Dinamo Minsk	25	17	4	4	27	55
3	FC Isloch Minsk R.	25	15	7	3	27	52
4	Dinamo Brest	25	13	5	7	16	44
5	Neman	25	13	4	8	10	43
6	FC Vitebsk	26	11	7	8	6	40
7	FC Gomel	26	11	7	8	10	40
8	FC Minsk	26	10	4	12	-3	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	25	9	6	10	-1	33
10	Slavia Mozyr	25	7	7	11	-4	28
11	Baranovichi	26	7	7	12	-16	28
12	Belshina	25	6	6	13	-18	24
13	Arsenal	25	5	8	12	-20	23
14	Bate Borisov	26	4	9	13	-14	21
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	25	3	10	12	-16	19
16	Naftan	26	4	5	17	-38	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Baranovichi win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.