Baranovichi vs Slavia Mozyr Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Baranovichi and 1.40 for Slavia Mozyr, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Slavia Mozyr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Baranovichi home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Slavia Mozyr away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Slavia Mozyr to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 32% / 26% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Baranovichi and 1.40 for Slavia Mozyr, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Baranovichi win32%

Draw26%

Slavia Mozyr win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.5%
0–110.4%
1–08.9%
1–28.7%
2–17.5%

Recent form

Baranovichi

2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Minsk · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Brest · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs ML Vitebsk · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-09T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Bate Borisov · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-01T13:10:00.000Z · H vs FC Isloch Minsk R. · 3-4 (L)

Slavia Mozyr

2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Zhodino · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Belshina · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Minsk · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bate Borisov · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Naftan · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-06-26T15:00:00.000Z · Baranovichi 1-1 Slavia Mozyr (Premier League)
2022-12-03T00:00:00.000Z · Baranovichi 0-2 Slavia Mozyr (Friendlies Clubs)
2018-11-03T11:00:00.000Z · Baranovichi 1-3 Slavia Mozyr (1. Division)
2018-07-07T14:30:00.000Z · Baranovichi 0-2 Slavia Mozyr (1. Division)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ML Vitebsk	25	16	8	1	34	56
2	Dinamo Minsk	25	17	4	4	27	55
3	FC Isloch Minsk R.	25	15	7	3	27	52
4	Dinamo Brest	26	14	5	7	19	47
5	Neman	26	13	4	9	7	43
6	FC Vitebsk	26	11	7	8	6	40
7	FC Gomel	26	11	7	8	10	40
8	FC Minsk	26	10	4	12	-3	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	26	9	6	11	-3	33
10	Slavia Mozyr	26	8	7	11	-2	31
11	Baranovichi	26	7	7	12	-16	28
12	Belshina	25	6	6	13	-18	24
13	Arsenal	26	5	9	12	-20	24
14	Bate Borisov	26	4	9	13	-14	21
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	26	3	11	12	-16	20
16	Naftan	26	4	5	17	-38	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.