Estadio Os Carrís · Analysis updated 09:51 UTC
Barbadás vs Compostela Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Barbadás and 1.64 for Compostela, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Compostela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Compostela win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barbadás home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Compostela away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Compostela to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 30% / 24% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Barbadás and 1.64 for Compostela, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–17.3%
- 0–27.1%
Recent form
Barbadás
- 2026-05-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Alondras · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs CD Lugo B · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-04-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Celta de Vigo III · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-19T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Silva · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Celtiga · 3-2 (W)
Compostela
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Astorga · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Coruxo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Oviedo II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Eibar II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sestao River · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boiro | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Sarriana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | Lalin | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Barco | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Antela | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Portonovo SD | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Silva | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Villalbés | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Alondras | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Celtiga | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Estradense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Atlético Arteixo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Coruña | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Pontevedra II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 15 | Somozas | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo III | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Viveiro | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Arenteiro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Compostela win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.