Estadi Johan Cruyff · Analysis updated 00:34 UTC
Barcelona B vs Peña Sport Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.96 expected goals for Barcelona B and 0.68 for Peña Sport, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Barcelona B the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Barcelona B win
67.7% probability
Expected goals
1.96 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barcelona B home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Peña Sport away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barcelona B to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 20% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.96 goals for Barcelona B and 0.68 for Peña Sport, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 2–013.7%
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–09.0%
Recent form
Barcelona B
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tudelano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Peña Sport · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Barbastro · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UD Logroñés II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Náxara · 5-0 (W)
Peña Sport
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs SD Logroñés · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona B · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Manresa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Utebo · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona B | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Espanyol II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 3 | Olot | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Terrassa | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Manresa | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Osasuna II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Girona II | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Ebro | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Reddis | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Tudelano | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Peña Sport | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | UD Logroñés II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Barbastro | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Utebo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Náxara | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 5 |
| 16 | Calamocha | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
| 17 | SD Logroñés | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | Arnedo | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Barcelona B win, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.