Estadi Johan Cruyff · Analysis updated 14:19 UTC
Barcelona B vs SD Logroñés Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.54 expected goals for Barcelona B and 0.47 for SD Logroñés, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives Barcelona B the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Barcelona B win
82.2% probability
Expected goals
2.54 – 0.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barcelona B home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SD Logroñés away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–015.8%
- 3–013.4%
- 1–012.4%
- 4–08.5%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Barcelona B
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tudelano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Peña Sport · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Barbastro · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UD Logroñés II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Náxara · 5-0 (W)
SD Logroñés
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona B · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Peña Sport · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olot · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Girona II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Utebo · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · Barcelona B 1-0 SD Logroñés (Segunda División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2024-02-04T11:00:00.000Z · Barcelona B 1-1 SD Logroñés (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-08-27T19:30:00.000Z · Barcelona B 0-1 SD Logroñés (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-04-15T17:00:00.000Z · Barcelona B 3-0 SD Logroñés (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
- 2022-10-23T15:00:00.000Z · Barcelona B 0-4 SD Logroñés (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona B | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | Osasuna II | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Espanyol II | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 13 |
| 4 | Ebro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Olot | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Manresa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 7 | Terrassa | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Girona II | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Reddis | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 10 | Tudelano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Peña Sport | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | UD Logroñés II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Barbastro | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Utebo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Náxara | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Calamocha | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | SD Logroñés | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 3 |
| 18 | Arnedo | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Barcelona B win, at 82.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.