Barcelona RJ vs Búzios Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Barcelona RJ and 1.72 for Búzios, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Búzios the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Búzios win

58.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.85 – 1.72

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Búzios away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Búzios to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 18% / 24% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Barcelona RJ and 1.72 for Búzios, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 47%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Barcelona RJ win18%

Draw24%

Búzios win58%

Double chance 1X

42%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

82%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

0–113.1%
0–211.3%
1–111.2%
1–29.6%
0–07.6%

Recent form

Barcelona RJ

Búzios

2026-08-31T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Rio de Janeiro · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-26T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardoso Moreira · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-23T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Barra Mansa · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Barra Mansa · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs EC Resende · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Carioca C table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cardoso Moreira	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Campos AA	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	Tigres do Brasil	6	4	1	1	5	13
4	Barra Mansa	6	4	0	2	4	12
5	Brescia Clube	6	3	1	2	4	10
6	Búzios	6	2	3	1	2	9
7	EC Resende	6	3	0	3	1	9
8	Ceres	6	3	0	3	-1	9
9	Uni Souza	6	2	1	3	2	7
10	Mageense	6	2	1	3	-7	7
11	Uniao Central	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Itaborai Profute	6	1	3	2	0	6
13	Independente RJ	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	CAAC Brasil	6	1	1	4	-7	4
15	EC Vera Cruz	6	1	0	5	-7	3
16	Barcelona RJ	6	1	0	5	-11	3
1	Barra Mansa	6	4	0	2	4	12
2	Búzios	6	2	3	1	2	9
3	EC Resende	6	3	0	3	1	9
4	Ceres	6	3	0	3	-1	9
5	Uni Souza	6	2	1	3	2	7
6	Uniao Central	6	2	1	3	-1	7
7	Independente RJ	6	1	2	3	-2	5
8	CAAC Brasil	6	1	1	4	-7	4
1	Cardoso Moreira	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Campos AA	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	Tigres do Brasil	6	4	1	1	5	13
4	Brescia Clube	6	3	1	2	4	10
5	Mageense	6	2	1	3	-7	7
6	Itaborai Profute	6	1	3	2	0	6
7	EC Vera Cruz	6	1	0	5	-7	3
8	Barcelona RJ	6	1	0	5	-11	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Búzios win, at 58.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.