Ecuador · Liga Pro · Matchweek 2800:00

2 – 1

Thursday, 3 September 2026

Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha · Referee O. Contreras · Analysis updated 15:24 UTC

Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Barcelona SC and 1.43 for Independiente del Valle, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Independiente del Valle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

70.4% probability

High confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.12 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Barcelona SC home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Independiente del Valle away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Independiente del Valle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 30% / 26% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Barcelona SC and 1.43 for Independiente del Valle, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Barcelona SC win30%

Draw26%

Independiente del Valle win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.5%
0–111.2%
1–28.9%
1–08.7%
0–28.0%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.9%), compared with our model probability.

No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Match result	Home	3.30	28.4%	29.6%	3.38	+1.2
Goals	Under 3.5	1.28	73.5%	74.7%	1.34	+1.2
Both teams to score	No	1.93	47.6%	48.8%	2.05	+1.2
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.67	55.2%	55.9%	1.79	+0.7
Goals	Under 2.5	1.80	52.6%	53.1%	1.88	+0.5
Match result	Away	2.12	44.1%	44.1%	2.27	-0.0
Double chance	Home/Away	1.25	73.8%	73.7%	1.36	-0.1
Goals	Over 2.5	2.00	47.4%	46.9%	2.13	-0.5
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.30	71.0%	70.4%	1.42	-0.6
Match result	Draw	3.40	27.5%	26.3%	3.80	-1.2
Goals	Over 3.5	3.55	26.5%	25.3%	3.95	-1.2
Both teams to score	Yes	1.75	52.4%	51.2%	1.95	-1.2

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Barcelona SC

2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · A vs LDU de Quito · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfin SC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Aucas · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-03T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente del Valle · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-30T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Manta FC · 0-2 (L)

Independiente del Valle

2026-09-25T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Gualaceo SC · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Libertad · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Macara · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga Pro table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	30	24	2	4	40	74
2	Universidad Catolica	30	14	9	7	24	51
3	Macara	30	15	6	9	8	51
4	Aucas	30	14	8	8	5	50
5	LDU de Quito	30	13	7	10	7	46
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	7	44
7	Libertad	30	11	8	11	-1	41
8	Leones del Norte	30	10	9	11	-1	39
9	Guayaquil City FC	30	10	9	11	-3	39
10	Emelec	30	10	9	11	-9	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	30	9	11	10	-3	38
12	Deportivo Cuenca	30	10	6	14	-12	36
13	Orense SC	30	9	6	15	-11	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	30	10	2	18	-14	32
15	Delfin SC	30	7	7	16	-12	28
16	Manta FC	30	5	6	19	-25	21
1	Independiente del Valle	31	25	2	4	41	77
2	Macara	32	17	6	9	10	57
3	LDU de Quito	32	15	7	10	9	52
4	Universidad Catolica	32	14	9	9	22	51
5	Aucas	32	14	8	10	3	50
6	Barcelona SC	31	11	11	9	6	44
7	Libertad	32	13	8	11	3	47
8	Guayaquil City FC	32	11	10	11	-2	43
9	Leones del Norte	32	10	10	12	-4	40
10	Emelec	32	10	9	13	-11	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	32	9	12	11	-4	39
12	Deportivo Cuenca	32	10	8	14	-12	38
13	Orense SC	32	9	7	16	-12	34
14	Tecnico Universitario	32	10	3	19	-15	33
15	Delfin SC	32	8	8	16	-11	32
16	Manta FC	32	7	6	19	-23	27

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.