Camp Nou · Analysis updated 20:40 UTC
Barcelona vs Alaves Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.88 expected goals for Barcelona and 1.20 for Alaves, a combined total of 4.08. That distribution gives Barcelona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Barcelona win
71.8% probability
Expected goals
2.88 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barcelona home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alaves away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barcelona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 15% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.88 goals for Barcelona and 1.20 for Alaves, a combined 4.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–07.0%
- 3–06.7%
- 1–15.9%
Recent form
Barcelona
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Levante · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord · 5-1 (W)
Alaves
- 2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Barcelona win, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.