Estadi Johan Cruyff · Referee L. Trujillano · Analysis updated 13:47 UTC
Barcelona W vs Atletico Madrid W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.27 expected goals for Barcelona W and 1.07 for Atletico Madrid W, a combined total of 4.34. That distribution gives Barcelona W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Barcelona W win
79.5% probability
Expected goals
3.27 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barcelona W home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barcelona W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 12% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.27 goals for Barcelona W and 1.07 for Atletico Madrid W, a combined 4.34 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 80% and both teams to score at 63%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.1%
- 3–07.6%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–07.0%
- 4–16.7%
Recent form
Barcelona W
- 2026-09-30T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Roma W · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Edf Logrono W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC W · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Alavés W · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid W · 4-2 (W)
Atletico Madrid W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División Femenina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 21 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Athletic Club W | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid W | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Madrid CFF W | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 13 |
| 6 | Eibar W | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Granad. Tenerife W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Granada | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 9 | Espanyol W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Edf Logrono W | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Real Sociedad W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Sevilla W | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | FC Levante Badalona W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Deportivo Alavés W | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Valencia W | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Barcelona W win, at 79.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.