Ullevaal Stadion · Referee T. Olofsson · Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Barcelona W vs Lyon W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Barcelona W and 1.88 for Lyon W, a combined total of 4.06. That distribution gives Barcelona W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Barcelona W win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barcelona W home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lyon W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barcelona W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 20% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Barcelona W and 1.88 for Lyon W, a combined 4.06 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–17.1%
- 1–26.7%
- 3–15.6%
Recent form
Barcelona W
- 2026-10-24T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Granada · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid W · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Roma W · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Edf Logrono W · 2-0 (W)
Lyon W
- 2026-10-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Marseille W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T19:05:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-23T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Servette Chênois W · 8-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Champions League Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
| 2 | Lyon W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 |
| 3 | Paris Saint Germain W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 4 | Bayern Munich W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 5 | Arsenal W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Inter Milano W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Chelsea W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Køge W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Juventus W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | SL Benfica W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 11 | Manchester City W | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Real Madrid W | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Austria Wien W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 | Paris FC W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | OH Leuven W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 1 |
| 16 | Roma W | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 1 |
| 17 | Häcken W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Servette Chênois W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Barcelona W win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.