· Analysis updated 10:15 UTC
Barco vs Sarriana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Barco and 1.22 for Sarriana, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Barco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.8% probability
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barco home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sarriana away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 26% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Barco and 1.22 for Sarriana, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.1%
- 1–27.4%
Recent form
Barco
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pontevedra II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lalin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Portonovo SD · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Silva · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Arenteiro · 1-0 (W)
Sarriana
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta de Vigo III · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Alondras · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Viveiro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Estradense · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander II · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boiro | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Sarriana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | Lalin | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Barco | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Antela | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Portonovo SD | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Silva | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Villalbés | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Alondras | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Celtiga | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Estradense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Atlético Arteixo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Coruña | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Pontevedra II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 15 | Somozas | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo III | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Viveiro | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Arenteiro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.