Barco vs Somozas Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Barco and 0.77 for Somozas, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Barco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Barco win

48.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.26 – 0.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Barco home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 29% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Barco and 0.77 for Somozas, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 38%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.

Match result (1X2)

Barco win48%

Draw29%

Somozas win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals60%

Over 2.5 goals33%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

1–016.6%
0–013.2%
1–112.7%
2–010.5%
0–110.1%

Recent form

Barco

2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pontevedra II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lalin · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Portonovo SD · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Silva · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Arenteiro · 1-0 (W)

Somozas

2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pontevedra II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lalin · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Portonovo SD · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Boiro · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Barco · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Boiro	7	5	1	1	6	16
2	Lalin	7	4	1	2	1	13
3	Barco	7	3	3	1	2	12
4	Antela	7	3	3	1	1	12
5	Sarriana	7	3	2	2	2	11
6	Portonovo SD	7	3	2	2	2	11
7	Silva	7	3	2	2	0	11
8	Villalbés	7	2	4	1	1	10
9	Alondras	7	3	1	3	0	10
10	Estradense	7	3	1	3	-1	10
11	Atlético Arteixo	7	2	3	2	0	9
12	Celtiga	7	2	3	2	0	9
13	Coruña	7	3	0	4	-1	9
14	Pontevedra II	7	2	1	4	1	7
15	Celta de Vigo III	7	2	1	4	-3	7
16	Somozas	7	1	3	3	-2	6
17	Viveiro	7	1	2	4	-4	5
18	Arenteiro	7	1	1	5	-5	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Barco win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.