Sports Centre de Bongerd · Analysis updated 00:43 UTC
Barendrecht vs Hoek Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for Barendrecht and 2.22 for Hoek, a combined total of 4.19. That distribution gives Hoek the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.
Model pick
Hoek or Draw
64.9% probability
Expected goals
1.97 – 2.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.4%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.6%
- 2–16.5%
- 1–35.5%
Why the model likes this
Barendrecht home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hoek away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hoek to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 35% / 20% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for Barendrecht and 2.22 for Hoek, a combined 4.19 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Barendrecht
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs HHC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior Maassluis · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · A vs RKAV Volendam · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-05-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Hoek · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam II · 1-4 (L)
Hoek
- 2026-08-15T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Koninklijke HFC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs NAC Breda · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · A vs De Treffers · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Rijnsburgse Boys · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Barendrecht · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tweede Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sparta Rotterdam II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Quick Boys | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | De Treffers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Almere City II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | HHC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Hoek | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Kloetinge | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Ijsselmeervogels | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Spakenburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Kozakken Boys | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | Katwijk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | AFC Amsterdam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 13 | Barendrecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | Koninklijke HFC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | GVVV Veenendaal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 16 | Rijnsburgse Boys | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | ROHDA Raalte | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 18 | RKAV Volendam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.