Bari U19 vs Catanzaro U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Bari U19 and 2.18 for Catanzaro U19, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Catanzaro U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Catanzaro U19 win

46.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 2.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bari U19 home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Catanzaro U19 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Catanzaro U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 34% / 20% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Bari U19 and 2.18 for Catanzaro U19, a combined 4.03 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bari U19 win34%

Draw20%

Catanzaro U19 win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

1–27.8%
2–27.2%
1–17.2%
2–16.6%
1–35.7%

Recent form

Bari U19

2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Palermo U19 · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Palermo U19 · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ascoli U19 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salernitana U19 · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-29T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Padova U19 · 1-0 (W)

Catanzaro U19

2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone U19 · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Napoli U19 · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Latina U19 · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Crotone U19 · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monopoli U19 · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Campionato Primavera - 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Renate U19	6	4	2	0	7	14
1	Catanzaro U19	6	6	0	0	13	18
2	Sampdoria U19	6	3	3	0	10	12
2	Perugia U19	6	5	0	1	15	15
3	Vicenza U19	6	3	3	0	7	12
3	Palermo U19	6	4	2	0	5	14
4	Cremonese U19	6	4	0	2	5	12
4	Benevento U19	6	4	1	1	12	13
5	Venezia U19	6	3	1	2	2	10
5	Monopoli U19	6	3	2	1	5	11
6	Udinese U19	6	3	0	3	1	9
6	Pescara U19	6	3	2	1	4	11
7	Padova U19	6	3	0	3	-1	9
7	Bari U19	6	2	3	1	4	9
8	Virtus Entella U19	6	2	2	2	2	8
8	Avellino U19	6	3	0	3	0	9
9	Lecco U19	6	2	2	2	-4	8
9	Latina U19	6	2	2	2	3	8
10	Cittadella U19	6	2	1	3	-3	7
10	Napoli U19	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Brescia U19	6	2	1	3	-5	7
11	Pisa U19	6	2	0	4	-2	6
12	Mantova U19	6	1	3	2	-4	6
12	Spezia U19	6	1	1	4	-6	4
13	Modena U19	6	1	2	3	-1	5
13	Frosinone U19	6	1	1	4	-14	4
14	Pro Vercelli U19	6	1	2	3	-5	5
14	Ascoli U19	6	0	2	4	-9	2
15	Sudtirol U19	6	0	4	2	-4	4
15	Cosenza U19	6	0	1	5	-13	1
16	Reggiana U19	6	0	2	4	-7	2
16	Salernitana U19	6	0	1	5	-17	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Catanzaro U19 win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.