· Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Bari U19 vs Monopoli U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.34 expected goals for Bari U19 and 1.46 for Monopoli U19, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Bari U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Bari U19 win
57.0% probability
Expected goals
2.34 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bari U19 home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Monopoli U19 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bari U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 20% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.34 goals for Bari U19 and 1.46 for Monopoli U19, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 1–17.6%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–06.1%
Recent form
Bari U19
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Palermo U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Palermo U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ascoli U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salernitana U19 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Padova U19 · 1-0 (W)
Monopoli U19
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Perugia U19 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cosenza U19 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Brescia U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cosenza U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Catanzaro U19 · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campionato Primavera - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renate U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 1 | Perugia U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 2 | Vicenza U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Catanzaro U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 3 | Cremonese U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Avellino U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Virtus Entella U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Bari U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | Padova U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Palermo U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Mantova U19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 6 | Benevento U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 7 | Sampdoria U19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Spezia U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Modena U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Monopoli U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Venezia U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Pescara U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Brescia U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Latina U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Cittadella U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 11 | Pisa U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Udinese U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 12 | Ascoli U19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Sudtirol U19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 13 | Napoli U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Reggiana U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Frosinone U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 |
| 15 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 15 | Cosenza U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 |
| 16 | Lecco U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 |
| 16 | Salernitana U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bari U19 win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.