Barito Putera vs Persiba Balikpapan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Barito Putera and 0.33 for Persiba Balikpapan, a combined total of 1.67. That distribution gives Barito Putera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 21% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 25%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Barito Putera win

63.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 0.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Barito Putera home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Persiba Balikpapan away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Barito Putera win63%

Draw28%

Persiba Balikpapan win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals50%

Over 2.5 goals24%

Over 3.5 goals9%

Both teams to score21%

Correct score

1–025.3%
0–018.7%
2–017.1%
1–18.2%
3–07.7%

Recent form

Barito Putera

2026-09-26T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Tornado Pekanbaru · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Deltras · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Persipura Jayapura · 3-2 (W)
2026-05-03T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Persipal · 8-3 (W)
2026-04-25T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persela Lamongan · 1-1 (D)

Persiba Balikpapan

2026-09-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dejan · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Persela Lamongan · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs RANS Nusantara · 2-3 (L)
2026-05-08T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Persekat · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-03T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Deltras · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-18T12:00:00.000Z · Barito Putera 3-3 Persiba Balikpapan (Liga 2)
2026-01-24T12:00:00.000Z · Barito Putera 0-1 Persiba Balikpapan (Liga 2)
2025-11-02T12:00:00.000Z · Barito Putera 3-0 Persiba Balikpapan (Liga 2)
2017-10-20T10:30:00.000Z · Barito Putera 3-2 Persiba Balikpapan (Liga 1)
2017-07-09T07:00:00.000Z · Barito Putera 1-0 Persiba Balikpapan (Liga 1)

Liga 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persela Lamongan	4	4	0	0	10	12
2	Deltras	4	4	0	0	9	12
3	PSMS Medan	4	3	1	0	11	10
4	PSPS	4	3	0	1	2	9
5	Persikad Depok FC	4	3	0	1	-1	9
6	Tornado Pekanbaru	4	2	2	0	3	8
7	RANS Nusantara	4	2	1	1	4	7
8	PSIS Semarang	3	2	1	0	2	7
9	Semen Padang	4	2	1	1	2	7
10	PSGC Ciamis	4	2	0	2	0	6
11	Persipura Jayapura	4	1	2	1	1	5
12	Persis Solo	4	1	1	2	3	4
13	Barito Putera	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Dejan	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Sumsel United	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Bekasi City	4	0	1	3	-3	1
17	Persiku Kudus	3	0	1	2	-7	1
18	Persiraja Banda Aceh	4	0	0	4	-4	0
19	Persiba Balikpapan	4	0	0	4	-5	0
20	PSBS Biak Numfor	4	0	0	4	-22	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Barito Putera win, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 21% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.