Barki Tajik vs Khatlon Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Barki Tajik and 1.20 for Khatlon, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Barki Tajik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Barki Tajik home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Khatlon away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barki Tajik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 27% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Barki Tajik and 1.20 for Khatlon, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Barki Tajik win38%

Draw27%

Khatlon win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.9%
1–010.8%
0–110.4%
0–08.6%
2–18.1%

Recent form

Barki Tajik

2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sardor Tursunzoda · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Istaravshan · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eskhata · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ravshan · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Khatlon · 2-2 (D)

Khatlon

2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Parvoz · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Regar-TadAZ · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Sardor Tursunzoda · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Istaravshan · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Pomir · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Vysshaya Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Istiqlol	17	11	4	2	17	37
2	Regar-TadAZ	17	11	4	2	14	37
3	Khosilot Farkhor	17	10	4	3	17	34
4	Barki Tajik	16	7	3	6	1	24
5	CSKA Pomir	16	7	3	6	-2	24
6	Khujand	16	6	6	4	4	24
7	Ravshan	17	6	4	7	4	22
8	Khatlon	17	4	8	5	0	20
9	Eskhata	17	5	4	8	-10	19
10	Parvoz	17	4	3	10	-17	15
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	16	2	5	9	-8	11
12	Istaravshan	17	0	6	11	-20	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.