· Analysis updated 11:07 UTC
Barki Tajik vs Khosilot Farkhor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Barki Tajik and 1.63 for Khosilot Farkhor, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Khosilot Farkhor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.8% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barki Tajik home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Khosilot Farkhor away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.2%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Barki Tajik
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sardor Tursunzoda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Istaravshan · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eskhata · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ravshan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Khatlon · 2-2 (D)
Khosilot Farkhor
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ravshan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Parvoz · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Istiqlol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Regar-TadAZ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sardor Tursunzoda · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-24T14:45:00.000Z · Barki Tajik 1-2 Khosilot Farkhor (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2025-06-28T14:00:00.000Z · Barki Tajik 0-1 Khosilot Farkhor (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2025-03-16T13:00:00.000Z · Barki Tajik 3-0 Khosilot Farkhor (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2024-10-05T10:30:00.000Z · Barki Tajik 1-1 Khosilot Farkhor (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2024-05-10T12:00:00.000Z · Barki Tajik 0-3 Khosilot Farkhor (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2017-08-30T12:30:00.000Z · Barki Tajik 5-1 Khosilot Farkhor (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2017-06-17T13:00:00.000Z · Barki Tajik 1-0 Khosilot Farkhor (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2017-03-18T13:00:00.000Z · Barki Tajik 2-1 Khosilot Farkhor (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2016-11-14T09:00:00.000Z · Barki Tajik 3-1 Khosilot Farkhor (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2016-04-10T11:00:00.000Z · Barki Tajik 2-2 Khosilot Farkhor (Vysshaya Liga)
Vysshaya Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Istiqlol | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 37 |
| 2 | Regar-TadAZ | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 37 |
| 3 | Khosilot Farkhor | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 34 |
| 4 | Barki Tajik | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 24 |
| 5 | CSKA Pomir | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 24 |
| 6 | Khujand | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | Ravshan | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Khatlon | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Eskhata | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -10 | 19 |
| 10 | Parvoz | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 15 |
| 11 | Sardor Tursunzoda | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Istaravshan | 17 | 0 | 6 | 11 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.