· Analysis updated 06:19 UTC
Barki Tajik vs Regar-TadAZ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Barki Tajik and 1.05 for Regar-TadAZ, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Regar-TadAZ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barki Tajik home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Regar-TadAZ away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Regar-TadAZ to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 34% / 30% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Barki Tajik and 1.05 for Regar-TadAZ, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–012.9%
- 0–27.1%
Recent form
Barki Tajik
- 2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Parvoz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Regar-TadAZ · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sardor Tursunzoda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Istaravshan · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eskhata · 2-2 (D)
Regar-TadAZ
- 2026-10-23T13:25:00.000Z · A vs Fortis · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Qadsia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:25:00.000Z · A vs Goa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Barki Tajik · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Khatlon · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Vysshaya Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Regar-TadAZ | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 40 |
| 2 | Istiqlol | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 37 |
| 3 | Khosilot Farkhor | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 35 |
| 4 | CSKA Pomir | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 27 |
| 5 | Khujand | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 27 |
| 6 | Ravshan | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 26 |
| 7 | Khatlon | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 26 |
| 8 | Barki Tajik | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | -1 | 25 |
| 9 | Eskhata | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | -10 | 20 |
| 10 | Parvoz | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -20 | 16 |
| 11 | Sardor Tursunzoda | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 12 |
| 12 | Istaravshan | 19 | 0 | 6 | 13 | -22 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.