Stadio Comunale Cosimo Puttilli · Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
Barletta vs Bari Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Barletta and 1.51 for Bari, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Bari the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bari win
48.4% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.51
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barletta home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Bari away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bari to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 26% / 26% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Barletta and 1.51 for Bari, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.9%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–08.1%
Recent form
Barletta
- 2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Giugliano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Potenza · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Catania · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Salernitana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Casarano · 1-3 (L)
Bari
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Salernitana · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cosenza · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Sorrento · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Potenza · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Team Altamura · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | Bari | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | Sorrento | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 4 | Catania | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
| 5 | Casertana | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Audace Cerignola | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Scafatese | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Salernitana | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | AZ Picerno | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | SS Monopoli | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Cavese | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Foggia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Casarano | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Inter U23 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Savoia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 16 | Team Altamura | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 17 | Barletta | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 18 | Giugliano | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 2 |
| 20 | Crotone | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bari win, at 48.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.