Stadio Comunale Cosimo Puttilli · Referee G. M. Manzo · Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
Barletta vs Potenza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Barletta and 1.15 for Potenza, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Barletta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.2% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barletta home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Potenza away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barletta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 28% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Barletta and 1.15 for Potenza, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.5%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–27.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 53.3% vs market 43.0%, edge +10.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 43.0% | 53.3% | 1.88 | +10.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 69.6% | 71.6% | 1.40 | +2.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.50 | 35.4% | 35.8% | 2.79 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 28.5% | 28.4% | 3.52 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 64.3% | 64.2% | 1.56 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.45 | 36.1% | 35.8% | 2.79 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 66.1% | 64.2% | 1.56 | -1.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.0% | 46.7% | 2.14 | -10.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Barletta
- 2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Giugliano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Potenza · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Catania · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Salernitana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Casarano · 1-3 (L)
Potenza
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Barletta · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cavese · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bari · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Salernitana · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs SS Monopoli · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | Bari | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | Sorrento | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 4 | Catania | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
| 5 | Casertana | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Audace Cerignola | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Inter U23 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Scafatese | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Salernitana | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | AZ Picerno | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Cavese | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | SS Monopoli | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 13 | Foggia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Casarano | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 15 | Savoia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 16 | Barletta | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 17 | Team Altamura | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | Giugliano | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 7 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 20 | Crotone | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.