· Analysis updated 13:24 UTC
Barletta vs SS Monopoli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Barletta and 1.20 for SS Monopoli, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives SS Monopoli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.9% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barletta home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
SS Monopoli away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SS Monopoli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 29% / 29% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Barletta and 1.20 for SS Monopoli, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.0%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–28.4%
Recent form
Barletta
- 2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Giugliano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Potenza · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Catania · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Salernitana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Casarano · 1-3 (L)
SS Monopoli
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Casarano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Crotone · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Scafatese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Foggia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Potenza · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | Bari | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | Sorrento | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 4 | Catania | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
| 5 | Casertana | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Audace Cerignola | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Scafatese | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Salernitana | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | AZ Picerno | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | SS Monopoli | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Cavese | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Foggia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Casarano | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Inter U23 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Savoia | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 16 | Team Altamura | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 17 | Barletta | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 18 | Giugliano | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 2 |
| 20 | Crotone | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.