The Hive Stadium · Analysis updated 15:24 UTC
Barnet vs Fleetwood Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Barnet and 0.94 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Barnet the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Barnet win
54.3% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barnet home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fleetwood Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.3%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–07.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 50.7% vs market 42.4%, edge +8.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.4% | 50.7% | 1.97 | +8.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 44.8% | 45.7% | 2.19 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 4.40 | 20.8% | 21.3% | 4.69 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.3% | 75.6% | 1.32 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.75 | 24.4% | 24.4% | 4.10 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.67 | 54.8% | 54.3% | 1.84 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 79.8% | 78.7% | 1.27 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.6% | 49.3% | 2.03 | -8.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Barnet
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fleetwood Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Accrington ST · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chesterfield · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Exeter City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Cheltenham · 2-2 (D)
Fleetwood Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salford City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rochdale · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Oldham · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barnet · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Utd · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Barnet 3-1 Fleetwood Town (League Two)
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Barnet 5-2 Fleetwood Town (League Two)
- 2025-11-01T15:00:00.000Z · Barnet 1-2 Fleetwood Town (FA Cup)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · Barnet 0-2 Fleetwood Town (League Two)
- 2019-11-10T12:45:00.000Z · Barnet 0-2 Fleetwood Town (FA Cup)
- 2013-03-19T20:00:00.000Z · Barnet 2-0 Fleetwood Town (League Two)
- 2012-09-29T14:00:00.000Z · Barnet 1-2 Fleetwood Town (League Two)
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Gillingham | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | York | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 10 | Rochdale | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 | Accrington ST | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 20 | Rotherham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 21 | Oldham | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Barnet win, at 54.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.