The Hive Stadium · Referee R. Eley · Analysis updated 03:07 UTC
Barnet vs Salford City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Barnet and 1.22 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Barnet the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.9% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barnet home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Salford City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barnet to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Barnet and 1.22 for Salford City, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Away | 2.95 | 31.7% | 33.1% | 3.02 | +1.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.00 | 45.9% | 47.3% | 2.11 | +1.4 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.30 | 72.6% | 73.6% | 1.36 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.57 | 58.9% | 59.4% | 1.68 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.32 | 40.3% | 40.6% | 2.46 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.83 | 51.6% | 51.8% | 1.93 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.38 | 67.0% | 66.9% | 1.49 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.95 | 48.4% | 48.2% | 2.07 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.0% | 73.7% | 1.36 | -0.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.45 | 27.4% | 26.4% | 3.79 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.1% | 52.7% | 1.90 | -1.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.35 | 27.9% | 26.3% | 3.80 | -1.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Barnet
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oldham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Swindon Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tranmere · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bristol Rovers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Wimbledon · 0-0 (D)
Salford City
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Accrington ST · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fleetwood Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Oldham · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Wednesday · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swindon Town · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | Barnet | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Cheltenham | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 21 |
| 4 | Crewe | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 21 |
| 5 | York | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Walsall | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 19 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Exeter City | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 18 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 12 | Gillingham | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 14 | Swindon Town | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -4 | 16 |
| 16 | Newport County | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 17 | Rochdale | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 15 |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 19 | Northampton | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 20 | Oldham | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 21 | Colchester | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.