Oakwell · Referee S. Stockbridge · Analysis updated 14:31 UTC
Barnsley vs Leicester Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Barnsley and 1.51 for Leicester, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Leicester the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.51
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barnsley home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Leicester away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.0%
- 0–27.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.62 (model 45.8% vs market 35.5%, edge +10.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.62 | 35.5% | 45.8% | 2.18 | +10.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.35 | 69.6% | 70.0% | 1.43 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 2.05 | 44.4% | 44.6% | 2.24 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.3% | 25.4% | 3.94 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.70 | 55.3% | 55.3% | 1.81 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 3.00 | 30.3% | 29.9% | 3.34 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.2% | 74.5% | 1.34 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 64.5% | 54.2% | 1.85 | -10.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Barnsley
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stockport County · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds United U21 · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Leicester · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough · 3-3 (D)
Leicester
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham U21 · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Barnsley · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stockport County · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxford United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · Barnsley 1-1 Leicester (League One)
- 2014-03-11T19:45:00.000Z · Barnsley 0-3 Leicester (Championship)
- 2013-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Barnsley 1-2 Leicester (Championship)
- 2013-04-01T14:00:00.000Z · Barnsley 2-0 Leicester (Championship)
- 2012-12-08T15:00:00.000Z · Barnsley 2-2 Leicester (Championship)
- 2012-01-14T15:00:00.000Z · Barnsley 2-1 Leicester (Championship)
- 2011-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · Barnsley 1-1 Leicester (Championship)
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Bradford | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 3 | Stockport County | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Huddersfield | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 5 | Cambridge United | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Reading | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 7 | Oxford United | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 9 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Burton Albion | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 14 | Luton | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 15 | Wycombe | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Doncaster | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Leicester | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Blackpool | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Peterborough | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Bromley | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 22 | Notts County | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 24 | Wigan | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.