Barquereño vs Tropezón Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.64 expected goals for Barquereño and 2.01 for Tropezón, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives Tropezón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Tropezón win

69.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.64 – 2.01

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Barquereño home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tropezón away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tropezón to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 11% / 20% / 70% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.64 goals for Barquereño and 2.01 for Tropezón, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Barquereño win11%

Draw20%

Tropezón win70%

Double chance 1X

30%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

89%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

0–214.3%
0–114.2%
0–39.6%
1–29.1%
1–19.1%

Recent form

Barquereño

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Selaya · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Laredo · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Bezana · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Torina · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Velarde · 0-1 (L)

Tropezón

2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Mineros · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Castro · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Revilla · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Solares · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Selaya · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tropezón	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	Bezana	6	5	1	0	8	16
3	Laredo	6	5	0	1	12	15
4	Sámano	6	3	2	1	8	11
5	Revilla	6	3	2	1	5	11
6	Cayón	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Torina	6	2	4	0	6	10
8	Vimenor	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Selaya	6	2	1	3	-3	7
10	Atlético Mineros	6	2	0	4	-8	6
11	Guarnizo	6	1	2	3	-3	5
12	Solares	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	Castro	6	1	2	3	-4	5
14	Escobedo	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Atlético Albericia	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Velarde	6	1	1	4	-7	4
17	Barquereño	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	Naval Reinosa	6	0	2	4	-9	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tropezón win, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.