· Analysis updated 15:43 UTC
Barra Mansa vs Uni Souza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Barra Mansa and 0.87 for Uni Souza, a combined total of 2.16. That distribution gives Barra Mansa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Barra Mansa win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barra Mansa home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Uni Souza away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barra Mansa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 29% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Barra Mansa and 0.87 for Uni Souza, a combined 2.16 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.9%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–011.5%
- 0–110.0%
- 2–09.7%
Recent form
Barra Mansa
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Serra Macaense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz RJ · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardoso Moreira · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rio de Janeiro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-28T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Búzios · 1-0 (W)
Uni Souza
- 2026-07-12T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Barra Mansa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-07T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Barra Mansa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-03T17:45:00.000Z · H vs EC Vera Cruz · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-06-30T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Campos AA · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona RJ · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardoso Moreira | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Campos AA | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Tigres do Brasil | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Barra Mansa | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Brescia Clube | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Búzios | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | EC Resende | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Ceres | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Uni Souza | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Mageense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 11 | Uniao Central | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Itaborai Profute | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Independente RJ | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | CAAC Brasil | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 15 | EC Vera Cruz | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Barcelona RJ | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
| 1 | Barra Mansa | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | Búzios | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | EC Resende | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Ceres | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 5 | Uni Souza | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Uniao Central | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Independente RJ | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 8 | CAAC Brasil | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 1 | Cardoso Moreira | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Campos AA | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Tigres do Brasil | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Brescia Clube | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Mageense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 6 | Itaborai Profute | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | EC Vera Cruz | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 8 | Barcelona RJ | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Barra Mansa win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.