· Analysis updated 09:17 UTC
Barra SC U20 vs Joinville U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.16 expected goals for Barra SC U20 and 0.97 for Joinville U20, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Barra SC U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Barra SC U20 win
80.0% probability
Expected goals
3.16 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Joinville U20 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barra SC U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 12% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.16 goals for Barra SC U20 and 0.97 for Joinville U20, a combined 4.13 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 59%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.5%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–08.0%
- 2–17.8%
- 4–06.7%
Recent form
Barra SC U20
Joinville U20
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Carlos Renaux U20 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barra SC U20 · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-07-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Criciuma U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Avaí U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brusque U20 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Catarinense U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Avaí U20 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 21 |
| 2 | Barra SC U20 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Criciuma U20 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | Chapecoense U20 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 5 | Figueirense U20 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 6 | Nação U20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Concórdia U20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 8 | Joinville U20 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 9 | Carlos Renaux U20 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 10 | Brusque U20 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Barra SC U20 win, at 80.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.