· Analysis updated 14:05 UTC
Barracas Central Res. vs Atlético Tucumán Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Barracas Central Res. and 1.10 for Atlético Tucumán Res., a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Atlético Tucumán Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.0% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barracas Central Res. home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Tucumán Res. away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.2%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–012.2%
- 0–27.8%
Recent form
Barracas Central Res.
- 2026-10-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra Res. · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Instituto Res. · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Córdoba Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Banfield Res. · 0-2 (L)
Atlético Tucumán Res.
- 2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Córdoba Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Banfield Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Córdoba SdE Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central Res. · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-13T18:00:00.000Z · Barracas Central Res. 2-3 Atlético Tucumán Res. (Reserve League)
- 2024-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · Barracas Central Res. 0-1 Atlético Tucumán Res. (Reserve League)
- 2024-04-23T18:00:00.000Z · Barracas Central Res. 0-1 Atlético Tucumán Res. (Reserve League)
- 2023-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · Barracas Central Res. 1-2 Atlético Tucumán Res. (Reserve League)
- 2023-03-16T12:00:00.000Z · Barracas Central Res. 1-0 Atlético Tucumán Res. (Reserve League)
- 2022-08-21T13:00:00.000Z · Barracas Central Res. 2-0 Atlético Tucumán Res. (Reserve League)
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.