Claudio Fabian Tapia · Referee H. Mastrangelo · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Barracas Central vs Huracan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Barracas Central and 0.82 for Huracan, a combined total of 1.60. That distribution gives Huracan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.5% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barracas Central home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Huracan away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–020.2%
- 0–116.6%
- 1–015.7%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–26.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.50 (model 69.7% vs market 61.5%, edge +8.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.50 | 61.5% | 69.7% | 1.43 | +8.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 65.4% | 66.5% | 1.50 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.80 | 32.9% | 33.5% | 2.99 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.60 | 35.4% | 35.3% | 2.83 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 69.2% | 68.8% | 1.45 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 2.90 | 31.7% | 31.2% | 3.21 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.44 | 65.4% | 64.7% | 1.55 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.40 | 38.5% | 30.3% | 3.30 | -8.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Barracas Central
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Tucuman · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Independ. Rivadavia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Banfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos JRS · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Tigre · 0-0 (D)
Huracan
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · A vs River Plate · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgrano Cordoba · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-03T00:10:00.000Z · Barracas Central 1-0 Huracan (Copa Argentina)
- 2026-03-24T00:15:00.000Z · Barracas Central 0-0 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-11-17T20:00:00.000Z · Barracas Central 1-1 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-05-04T00:00:00.000Z · Barracas Central 1-0 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-06-04T18:00:00.000Z · Barracas Central 0-2 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-03-17T19:00:00.000Z · Barracas Central 1-0 Huracan (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-10-31T00:00:00.000Z · Barracas Central 0-0 Huracan (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-02-18T00:30:00.000Z · Barracas Central 0-2 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-09-13T22:00:00.000Z · Barracas Central 1-1 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-04-11T22:00:00.000Z · Barracas Central 2-1 Huracan (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.