Claudio Fabian Tapia · Referee P. Dovalo · Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
Barracas Central vs Rosario Central Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Barracas Central and 0.96 for Rosario Central, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Barracas Central the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barracas Central home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rosario Central away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.1%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.0%
- 2–07.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.60 | 57.9% | 60.1% | 1.66 | +2.2 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.12 | 83.7% | 85.7% | 1.17 | +2.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.98 | 31.3% | 32.5% | 3.08 | +1.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.42 | 66.7% | 67.7% | 1.48 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 68.7% | 69.2% | 1.45 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.56 | 36.5% | 36.7% | 2.72 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.38 | 67.3% | 67.5% | 1.48 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.45 | 64.0% | 63.3% | 1.58 | -0.7 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.85 | 33.3% | 32.3% | 3.10 | -1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 32.2% | 30.8% | 3.25 | -1.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 5.75 | 16.3% | 14.3% | 6.99 | -2.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.20 | 42.1% | 39.9% | 2.51 | -2.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Barracas Central
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Tucuman · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Independ. Rivadavia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Banfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos JRS · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Tigre · 0-0 (D)
Rosario Central
- 2026-10-06T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Banfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes L.P. · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos JRS · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Tigre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Newells Old Boys · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-16T01:00:00.000Z · Barracas Central 0-2 Rosario Central (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-11-01T00:15:00.000Z · Barracas Central 1-0 Rosario Central (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-07-08T19:00:00.000Z · Barracas Central 1-0 Rosario Central (Copa Argentina)
- 2024-03-28T23:00:00.000Z · Barracas Central 2-1 Rosario Central (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-11-06T21:30:00.000Z · Barracas Central 1-1 Rosario Central (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-06-09T18:30:00.000Z · Barracas Central 0-0 Rosario Central (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-08-13T18:30:00.000Z · Barracas Central 1-3 Rosario Central (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-03-12T22:15:00.000Z · Barracas Central 3-1 Rosario Central (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.