Jenner Park · Analysis updated 09:55 UTC
Barry Town vs Trefelin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Barry Town and 1.70 for Trefelin, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Barry Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.9% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barry Town home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trefelin away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barry Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 22% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Barry Town and 1.70 for Trefelin, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.8%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–27.1%
- 3–15.3%
Recent form
Barry Town
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tredegar Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Penybont · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Caernarfon Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs GAP Connah S Quay FC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Colwyn Bay · 2-5 (L)
Trefelin
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff MET · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Airbus UK · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs The New Saints · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Briton Ferry · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cambrian & Clydach · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 37 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 31 |
| 3 | Penybont | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 30 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 26 |
| 5 | Colwyn Bay | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 25 |
| 6 | Barry Town | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 25 |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 21 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 21 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -11 | 10 |
| 13 | Ammanford AFC | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -22 | 9 |
| 14 | Flint Town United | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -13 | 8 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -23 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | -30 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.