Estadio Tito Cucchiaroni · Analysis updated 18:54 UTC
Bartolomé Mitre vs Defensores de Vilelas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Bartolomé Mitre and 0.88 for Defensores de Vilelas, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Bartolomé Mitre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bartolomé Mitre win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bartolomé Mitre home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Defensores de Vilelas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bartolomé Mitre to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 29% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Bartolomé Mitre and 0.88 for Defensores de Vilelas, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.9%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–011.9%
- 0–110.5%
- 2–09.3%
Recent form
Bartolomé Mitre
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · A vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:05:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Belgrano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Douglas Haig · 0-3 (L)
Defensores de Vilelas
- 2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Unidos · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente De Chivilcoy · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Escobar · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bartolomé Mitre win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.