Estadio Tito Cucchiaroni · Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Bartolomé Mitre vs San Martin Formosa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Bartolomé Mitre and 1.28 for San Martin Formosa, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives San Martin Formosa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
San Martin Formosa win
47.6% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bartolomé Mitre home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Martin Formosa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Martin Formosa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 23% / 29% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Bartolomé Mitre and 1.28 for San Martin Formosa, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.0%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–012.6%
- 0–210.2%
- 1–010.0%
Recent form
Bartolomé Mitre
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · A vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:05:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Belgrano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Douglas Haig · 0-3 (L)
San Martin Formosa
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atenas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Atenas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bartolomé Mitre · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento de La Banda · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is San Martin Formosa win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.