Estadio Tito Cucchiaroni · Analysis updated 16:58 UTC
Bartolomé Mitre vs Sarmiento de La Banda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.94 expected goals for Bartolomé Mitre and 0.56 for Sarmiento de La Banda, a combined total of 1.50. That distribution gives Bartolomé Mitre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 26% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
78.8% probability
Expected goals
0.94 – 0.56
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bartolomé Mitre home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sarmiento de La Banda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bartolomé Mitre to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 36% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.94 goals for Bartolomé Mitre and 0.56 for Sarmiento de La Banda, a combined 1.50 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–022.3%
- 1–020.9%
- 0–112.5%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–09.8%
Recent form
Bartolomé Mitre
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin Formosa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · A vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:05:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Belgrano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Douglas Haig · 0-3 (L)
Sarmiento de La Banda
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Belgrano VR · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martin Formosa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs 9 de Julio Rafaela · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Belgrano · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 78.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 26% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.