Barwell vs AFC Sudbury Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Barwell and 1.65 for AFC Sudbury, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Barwell the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Barwell win

53.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.38 – 1.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Barwell home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AFC Sudbury away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barwell to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 20% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Barwell and 1.65 for AFC Sudbury, a combined 4.03 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Barwell win54%

Draw20%

AFC Sudbury win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals57%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

2–18.3%
1–17.0%
2–26.9%
3–16.6%
1–25.8%

Recent form

Barwell

2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Loughborough University · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Quorn · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Stortford · 3-1 (W)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bury Town · 0-3 (L)
2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Needham Market · 1-2 (L)

AFC Sudbury

2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ware · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lowestoft Town · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bury Town · 3-3 (D)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Halesowen Town · 0-5 (L)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stourbridge · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Premier - Southern Central table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Bedford	13	10	2	1	21	32
2	Bury Town	14	10	1	3	4	31
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	8	3	1	10	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	9	0	5	9	27
5	Needham Market	13	7	2	4	9	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	6	5	2	7	23
7	Kettering Town	12	6	4	2	13	22
8	Alvechurch	12	6	4	2	12	22
9	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	4	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	4	5	4	3	17
11	Halesowen Town	11	5	2	4	-3	17
12	Stourbridge	12	4	4	4	-2	16
13	Redditch United	11	3	5	3	1	14
14	Hitchin Town	14	3	4	7	-4	13
15	Bishop's Stortford	13	4	1	8	-6	13
16	Banbury United	13	3	4	6	-7	13
17	Leiston	11	3	3	5	-4	12
18	Stratford Town	13	2	6	5	-8	12
19	Leamington	13	2	4	7	-6	10
20	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	-8	7
21	Leighton Town	12	1	2	9	-13	5
22	Stamford	13	0	1	12	-32	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Barwell win, at 53.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.