Crown Skip Hire Stadium · Analysis updated 17:42 UTC
Barwell vs Bury Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Barwell and 2.03 for Bury Town, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Bury Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bury Town win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Barwell home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bury Town away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bury Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 27% / 22% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Barwell and 2.03 for Bury Town, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–26.7%
- 0–16.6%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Barwell
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Loughborough University · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Quorn · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Stortford · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bury Town · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Needham Market · 1-2 (L)
Bury Town
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Spalding United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spalding United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bishop's Stortford · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs St Albans City · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hitchin Town · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Southern Central table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 32 |
| 2 | Bury Town | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 31 |
| 3 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 27 |
| 4 | Rushall Olympic | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Needham Market | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 23 |
| 6 | Peterborough Sports | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 7 | Kettering Town | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 22 |
| 8 | Alvechurch | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 9 | Anstey Nomads | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 |
| 10 | Racing Club Warwick | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 11 | Halesowen Town | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Stourbridge | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Redditch United | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 14 | Banbury United | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 15 | Leiston | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 16 | Stratford Town | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -8 | 11 |
| 17 | Leamington | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 18 | Bishop's Stortford | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -8 | 10 |
| 19 | Hitchin Town | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
| 20 | Worcester City | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 21 | Leighton Town | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -13 | 5 |
| 22 | Stamford | 13 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -32 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bury Town win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.