Barwell vs Kettering Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Barwell and 2.33 for Kettering Town, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Kettering Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kettering Town win

61.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.23 – 2.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Barwell home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kettering Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 19% / 19% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Barwell and 2.33 for Kettering Town, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Barwell win19%

Draw19%

Kettering Town win62%

Double chance 1X

38%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

81%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–29.5%
1–18.2%
0–27.8%
1–37.4%
0–16.7%

Recent form

Barwell

2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Loughborough University · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Quorn · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Stortford · 3-1 (W)
2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bury Town · 0-3 (L)
2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Needham Market · 1-2 (L)

Kettering Town

2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Leiston · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bromsgrove Sporting · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Halesowen Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Worcester City · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Anstey Nomads · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Premier - Southern Central table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Real Bedford	12	10	2	0	23	32
2	Bury Town	13	10	1	2	8	31
3	Bromsgrove Sporting	12	8	3	1	10	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	9	0	5	9	27
5	Needham Market	13	7	2	4	9	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	6	5	2	7	23
7	Kettering Town	12	6	4	2	13	22
8	Alvechurch	11	6	3	2	12	21
9	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	4	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	4	5	4	3	17
11	Halesowen Town	11	5	2	4	-3	17
12	Stourbridge	12	4	4	4	-2	16
13	Redditch United	11	3	5	3	1	14
14	Banbury United	13	3	4	6	-7	13
15	Leiston	11	3	3	5	-4	12
16	Stratford Town	12	2	5	5	-8	11
17	Leamington	13	2	4	7	-6	10
18	Bishop's Stortford	12	3	1	8	-8	10
19	Hitchin Town	13	2	4	7	-8	10
20	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	-8	7
21	Leighton Town	12	1	2	9	-13	5
22	Stamford	13	0	1	12	-32	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kettering Town win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.