Crosby Awuah Memorial Stadium · Analysis updated 13:54 UTC
Basake Holy Stars vs Aduana Stars Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Basake Holy Stars and 0.70 for Aduana Stars, a combined total of 1.63. That distribution gives Basake Holy Stars the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.8% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Basake Holy Stars home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aduana Stars away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–019.7%
- 1–018.2%
- 0–113.8%
- 1–112.8%
- 2–08.4%
Recent form
Basake Holy Stars
- 2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hearts of Oak · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bechem United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bibiani Gold Stars · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Berekum Chelsea · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Medeama · 1-4 (L)
Aduana Stars
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Karela · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Samartex · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Heart of Lions · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Basake Holy Stars · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vision · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-18T13:00:00.000Z · Basake Holy Stars 0-0 Aduana Stars (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-05-06T15:00:00.000Z · Basake Holy Stars 2-0 Aduana Stars (Premier League)
- 2025-12-07T15:00:00.000Z · Basake Holy Stars 0-0 Aduana Stars (Premier League)
- 2025-06-08T15:00:00.000Z · Basake Holy Stars 1-3 Aduana Stars (Premier League)
- 2025-01-19T15:00:00.000Z · Basake Holy Stars 1-1 Aduana Stars (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Medeama | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Hearts of Oak | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 3 | Samartex | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Port City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Swedru All Blacks | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Bechem United | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Aduana Stars | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Basake Holy Stars | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 9 | Asante Kotoko | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Berekum Chelsea | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Ashanti Gold | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 12 | Bibiani Gold Stars | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Karela | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Vision | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 | Heart of Lions | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Debibi United | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Young Apostles | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Dreams | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.