Basake Holy Stars vs Aduana Stars Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Basake Holy Stars and 1.03 for Aduana Stars, a combined total of 2.19. That distribution gives Basake Holy Stars the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.16 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Basake Holy Stars home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aduana Stars away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Basake Holy Stars win39%

Draw29%

Aduana Stars win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–113.4%
1–013.0%
0–111.6%
0–011.3%
2–17.7%

Recent form

Basake Holy Stars

2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Berekum Chelsea · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Medeama · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ashanti Gold · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Apostles · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Swedru All Blacks · 1-0 (W)

Aduana Stars

2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Karela · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Samartex · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Heart of Lions · 0-0 (D)
2026-06-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Basake Holy Stars · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vision · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-06-18T13:00:00.000Z · Basake Holy Stars 0-0 Aduana Stars (Friendlies Clubs)
2026-05-06T15:00:00.000Z · Basake Holy Stars 2-0 Aduana Stars (Premier League)
2025-12-07T15:00:00.000Z · Basake Holy Stars 0-0 Aduana Stars (Premier League)
2025-06-08T15:00:00.000Z · Basake Holy Stars 1-3 Aduana Stars (Premier League)
2025-01-19T15:00:00.000Z · Basake Holy Stars 1-1 Aduana Stars (Premier League)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.