Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium · Referee Alpaslan Sen, Türkiye · Analysis updated 23:59 UTC
Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.38 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Başakşehir the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Başakşehir win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Başakşehir home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gaziantep FK away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Başakşehir to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Başakşehir and 1.38 for Gaziantep FK, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.9%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–06.7%
Recent form
Başakşehir
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gaziantep FK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Konyaspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Amed · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Galatasaray · 2-3 (L)
Gaziantep FK
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Erzurumspor FK · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Başakşehir · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Çorum FK · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kocaelispor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fenerbahçe · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 22 |
| 2 | Amed | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 19 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Fenerbahçe | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 16 |
| 6 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Göztepe | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Başakşehir | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Rizespor | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Konyaspor | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Gaziantep FK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 8 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -21 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Başakşehir win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.