Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium · Referee A. Karaoglan · Analysis updated 04:44 UTC
Başakşehir vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.96 for Gençlerbirliği S.K., a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Başakşehir the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Başakşehir win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
1.79 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Başakşehir home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.4%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.25 (model 48.6% vs market 41.1%, edge +7.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.25 | 41.1% | 48.6% | 2.06 | +7.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.20 | 42.8% | 43.1% | 2.32 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 23.0% | 23.1% | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 79.9% | 80.0% | 1.25 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.62 | 56.9% | 56.9% | 1.76 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 4.60 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.3% | 76.9% | 1.30 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 58.9% | 51.4% | 1.95 | -7.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Başakşehir
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gaziantep FK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Konyaspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Amed · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Galatasaray · 2-3 (L)
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Keçiörengücü · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Başakşehir · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kasımpaşa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Trabzonspor · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Erzurumspor FK · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · Başakşehir 4-0 Gençlerbirliği S.K. (Süper Lig)
- 2026-04-11T11:30:00.000Z · Başakşehir 3-0 Gençlerbirliği S.K. (Süper Lig)
- 2025-11-07T17:00:00.000Z · Başakşehir 1-2 Gençlerbirliği S.K. (Süper Lig)
- 2021-03-07T13:00:00.000Z · Başakşehir 1-0 Gençlerbirliği S.K. (Süper Lig)
- 2020-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · Başakşehir 2-1 Gençlerbirliği S.K. (Süper Lig)
- 2020-01-31T17:00:00.000Z · Başakşehir 3-1 Gençlerbirliği S.K. (Süper Lig)
- 2019-09-01T16:15:00.000Z · Başakşehir 2-1 Gençlerbirliği S.K. (Süper Lig)
- 2018-02-26T17:00:00.000Z · Başakşehir 1-1 Gençlerbirliği S.K. (Süper Lig)
- 2017-09-23T13:30:00.000Z · Başakşehir 0-1 Gençlerbirliği S.K. (Süper Lig)
- 2017-05-13T13:00:00.000Z · Başakşehir 2-1 Gençlerbirliği S.K. (Süper Lig)
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amed | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Beşiktaş | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Göztepe | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Başakşehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Konyaspor | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Gaziantep FK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 8 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -21 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Başakşehir win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.