Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium · Referee Halil Umut Meler, Türkiye · Analysis updated 15:07 UTC
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.04 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Başakşehir the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Başakşehir win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Başakşehir home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Başakşehir to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 23% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Başakşehir and 1.04 for Kasımpaşa, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.5%
- 3–16.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Away | 4.60 | 20.3% | 20.9% | 4.78 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.42 | 66.4% | 67.0% | 1.49 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.67 | 56.0% | 56.5% | 1.77 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.70 | 55.3% | 55.4% | 1.81 | +0.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.05 | 45.3% | 45.4% | 2.20 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.15 | 43.3% | 43.4% | 2.30 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 79.0% | 79.0% | 1.27 | 0.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.10 | 44.7% | 44.6% | 2.24 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.7% | 54.6% | 1.83 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 77.7% | 77.4% | 1.29 | -0.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.80 | 33.6% | 33.0% | 3.03 | -0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.95 | 23.7% | 22.5% | 4.44 | -1.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Başakşehir
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Konyaspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Amed · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Galatasaray · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Kasımpaşa · 1-1 (D)
Kasımpaşa
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Fatih Karagümrük · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Konyaspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amed · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Başakşehir · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · Başakşehir 1-1 Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig)
- 2026-04-24T17:00:00.000Z · Başakşehir 4-0 Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig)
- 2025-11-29T17:00:00.000Z · Başakşehir 3-1 Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig)
- 2025-05-18T16:00:00.000Z · Başakşehir 3-2 Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig)
- 2024-12-23T17:00:00.000Z · Başakşehir 2-2 Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig)
- 2024-05-05T13:00:00.000Z · Başakşehir 4-1 Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig)
- 2024-01-09T17:00:00.000Z · Başakşehir 3-0 Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig)
- 2023-01-21T13:00:00.000Z · Başakşehir 3-1 Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig)
- 2022-08-08T16:15:00.000Z · Başakşehir 4-0 Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig)
- 2022-04-30T13:00:00.000Z · Başakşehir 3-2 Kasımpaşa (Süper Lig)
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 2 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Amed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Fenerbahçe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 |
| 5 | Trabzonspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 13 |
| 6 | Alanyaspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Çorum FK | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Kasımpaşa | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Rizespor | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Gaziantep FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Erzurumspor FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Göztepe | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Başakşehir win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.