Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium · Analysis updated 16:48 UTC
Başakşehir vs Samsunspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.06 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Başakşehir the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Başakşehir win
60.1% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Başakşehir home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Samsunspor away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Başakşehir to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 21% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Başakşehir and 1.06 for Samsunspor, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–09.3%
- 1–09.1%
- 3–16.8%
Recent form
Başakşehir
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Konyaspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Amed · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Galatasaray · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Kasımpaşa · 1-1 (D)
Samsunspor
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzurumspor FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Çorum FK · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kocaelispor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Fenerbahçe · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rizespor · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 2 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Amed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Fenerbahçe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 |
| 5 | Trabzonspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 13 |
| 6 | Alanyaspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Çorum FK | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Kasımpaşa | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Rizespor | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Gaziantep FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Erzurumspor FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Göztepe | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Başakşehir win, at 60.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.