Stadiumi Basania · Analysis updated 03:05 UTC
Basania vs Naftëtari Kuçovë Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Basania and 1.35 for Naftëtari Kuçovë, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Naftëtari Kuçovë the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Basania home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Naftëtari Kuçovë away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Naftëtari Kuçovë to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 33% / 27% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Basania and 1.35 for Naftëtari Kuçovë, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Basania
- 2025-10-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Skenderbeu Korce · 2-5 (L)
- 2025-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sopoti Librazhd · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-03-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-03-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Naftëtari Kuçovë · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-03-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Murlani · 3-0 (W)
Naftëtari Kuçovë
- 2026-10-06T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Skenderbeu Korce · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-10-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamurtari · 0-5 (L)
- 2025-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Luzi 2008 · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-03-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sopoti Librazhd · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-03-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Basania · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2nd Division - Group A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 22 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 44 | 57 |
| 2 | Luzi 2008 | 22 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 37 | 56 |
| 3 | Sopoti Librazhd | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 51 |
| 4 | Tërbuni Pukë | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 38 |
| 5 | Veleçiku Koplik | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 34 |
| 6 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 34 |
| 7 | Albanët | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 24 |
| 8 | Naftëtari Kuçovë | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -2 | 22 |
| 9 | Adriatiku | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 | Basania | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -15 | 21 |
| 11 | Gramshi | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -23 | 14 |
| 12 | Murlani | 22 | 0 | 1 | 21 | -82 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.