Basconia vs Atlético Astorga Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Basconia and 1.18 for Atlético Astorga, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Basconia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Basconia or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Basconia win44%

Draw26%

Atlético Astorga win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Atlético Astorga away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Basconia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Basconia and 1.18 for Atlético Astorga, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Basconia

Atlético Astorga

2026-08-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs La Bañeza · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-08T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruña II · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs UD Ourense · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarriana · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Burgos Promesas · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugalete	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Racing Santander II	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Sestao River	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Marino de Luanco	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Compostela	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Gimnástica Torrelavega	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Coruxo	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Deportivo Alavés II	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Amorebieta	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Atlético Astorga	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Real Oviedo II	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Basconia	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Gernika	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Arosa	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Bergantiños	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Llanera	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Ourense CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Eibar II	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.